How Canada can qualify for World Cup in Qatar: Explaining situations for CanMNT in 2022

Canada has certified for only one FIFA males’s World Cup within the nation’s historical past, however that might change forward of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.

Les Rouges are main the ultimate spherical of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying with eight matches gone, and there’s a actual chance that Canada might qualify for its first World Cup since 1986. Nonetheless, there’s loads of work to be completed to clinch considered one of three direct berths with a bunch of 4 groups in rivalry.

The USA sit only a level again in second place, with a head-to-head matchup between the 2 sides looming on the finish of the month. Mexico and Panama are additionally inside hanging distance simply two factors behind, that means issues might change rapidly, particularly with three matches within the span of seven days on the finish of January.

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The approaching Matchday 9 will probably be completely vital. Since all high 4 groups are inside two factors of one another, and all 4 are matched up towards the bottom-four groups, it is completely potential that one dangerous end result might change the qualifying image.

CONCACAF World Cup qualifying standings

Under are the present standings within the race to qualify for the 2022 World Cup from the CONCACAF area. 

The highest three groups earn automated qualification to the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, whereas the staff ending in fourth will play an intercontinental playoff towards the winner of the Oceana area. The underside 4 groups are eradicated.

Canada 16 8 4 4 13 5 +8
United States 15 8 4 1 3 12 5 +7
Mexico 14 8 4 2 2 11 7 +4
Panama 14 8 4 2 2 11 9 +2
Costa Rica 9 8 2 3 3 6 7 -1
Jamaica 7 8 1 3 4 6 10 -4
El Salvador 6 8 1 4 3 4 10 -6
Honduras 3 8 5 3 5 15 -10

Canada World Cup qualifying schedule & outcomes

Under is the complete record of Canada’s previous outcomes and upcoming matches within the quest for 2022 World Cup qualification. 

Date Match Time (ET) TV / Stream
Sept. 2, 2021 Canada 1, Honduras 1   Highlights
Sept. 5, 2021 United States 1, Canada 1   Highlights
Sept. 8, 2021 Canada 3, El Salvador   Highlights
Oct. 7, 2021 Mexico 1, Canada 1   Highlights
Oct. 10, 2021 Jamaica , Canada    Highlights
Oct. 13, 2021 Canada 4, Panama 1   Highlights
Nov. 12, 2021 Canada 1, Costa Rica   Highlights
Nov. 16, 2021 Canada 2, Mexico 1   Highlights
Jan. 27, 2022 Honduras vs. Canada 8:05 p.m. ET  
Jan. 30, 2022 Canada vs. United States 3:05 p.m. ET  
Feb. 2, 2022 El Salvador vs. Canada 9 p.m. ET  
Mar. 24, 2022 Costa Rica vs. Canada TBD  
Mar. 27, 2022 Canada vs. Jamaica TBD  
Mar. 30, 2022 Panama vs. Canada TBD  
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What number of factors to qualify for the World Cup?

If we’re utilizing previous regional World Cup qualifying cycles for historic comparisons, we have to use the factors per recreation metric (PPG), since there have been solely 10 matches performed within the CONCACAF ultimate spherical in previous cycles (in comparison with the 14 on the calendar within the lead-up to Qatar 2022).

Whereas the variety of matches was completely different, the highest three spots nonetheless certified straight to every World Cup listed under (factors per recreation of every qualifying staff indicated in daring). And because the 2006 World Cup, the fourth-place staff advance to a playoff towards a nation from one other area.

Qualifying 1st 2nd third 4th fifth sixth seventh eighth
1998 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.6
2002 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.5
2006 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.2
2010 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.6
2014 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.5
2018 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.6
2022* 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.4

Canada qualifying outcomes projection

So what must realistically occur for Canada to be comfortably in that 1.8-1.9 points-per-game vary it must qualify with out breaking a sweat? Or, if followers want to dream large, how can they push in the direction of the two.0 PPG barrier to say the highest spot?

MORE: Which groups have certified for the 2022 World Cup?

We took a stab at projecting outcomes for the ultimate six matches, taking a much less favorable set of outcomes to seek out the minimal required to comfortably qualify. Canada is at the moment undefeated in first place, nevertheless it solely has two residence video games remaining in its ultimate six (vs. USA and Jamaica) with 4 highway journeys to Central America developing.

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The much less favorable set of outcomes features a loss and three attracts in these ultimate six video games. Contemplating a potential residence loss to the USA, plus highway attracts at Panama, Costa Rica and Honduras, the ensuing whole of 25 factors (and an approximate 1.8 points-per-game mark) ought to be sufficient to qualify.

These outcomes, nonetheless, enable little room for error, as a slip in any of the matches would complicate issues. For instance, a draw towards Jamaica or El Salvador as a substitute of a win would depart Canada in a really susceptible place (1.6 PPG), particularly if the opposite groups round them had been to proceed racking up wins. Clearly, a end result (maybe a win?) towards the USA at residence would go a good distance in the direction of allaying these fears.

Canada’s robust begin has given it some wiggle room, and CanMNT supporters will probably be hoping the staff can keep away from a situation wherein it will want a end result within the ultimate match in Panama to clinch a spot in Qatar.

Match Date Opponent / Outcome PPG
9 Thursday Jan. 27, 2022 Honduras 0, Canada 0 (Draw) 1.9
10 Sunday Jan. 30, 2022 Canada 0, United States 1 (Loss) 1.7
11 Wednesday Feb. 2, 2022 El Salvador 0, Canada 2 (Win) 1.8
12 Thursday March 24, 2022 Costa Rica 1, Canada 1 (Draw) 1.8
13 Sunday March 27, 2022 Canada 1, Jamaica 0 (Win) 1.8
14 Wednesday March 30, 2022 Panama 2, Canada 2 (Draw) 1.8

How Canada can safe World Cup qualification

With six matches remaining within the qualification cycle and the highest 4 groups inside two factors, there’s nonetheless a number of work left to be completed and a razor-thin margin for error.

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A transparent high 4 groups have been established, with a comparatively sizable hole between fourth and fifth. There are solely three assured spots for qualification; the nation ending in fourth will probably be left to play a single-elimination interncontinental playoff towards Oceania’s consultant, prone to be New Zealand.

Canada is unbeaten in eight matches, with 4 wins and 4 attracts to the Maple Leafs’ identify, and the capability to safe outcomes on the highway has been key. They picked up attracts on the highway towards the USA, Mexico and Jamaica. Add these to a 4W-0L-1D residence report, together with a well-known 2-1 residence win over Mexico, and the factors have come in bunches.

MORE: How the World Cup intercontinental playoffs work

The schedule sees 4 of its final six matches approaching the highway, so Canada will want the highway warrior mentality transferring ahead. Its two remaining residence matches towards the USA and Jamaica will probably be vital.

Canadian followers will probably be hoping the outcomes from the upcoming three-match set that kicks off on the finish of January — together with that residence match towards the USA — will enable it to manage its personal future heading into the ultimate worldwide window. 

CONCACAF standings tiebreakers

There’s all the time a chance that the CONCACAF standings are additional tight and that Canada is tied on factors with a number of of the seven different nations within the qualifying standings. Tiebreakers would come into play.

Listed below are the standings tiebreakers for groups even on factors:

  1. Objective distinction in all group matches
  2. Most targets scored in all group matches
  3. Most factors obtained from group matches between groups involved
  4. Objective distinction from group matches between groups involved
  5. Most targets scored in group matches between groups involved
  6. Targets scored away from residence (if two groups are tied)
  7. Self-discipline factors (based mostly on yellow/purple playing cards)
  8. Drawing of heaps by FIFA

The Qatar World Cup will probably be performed from Nov. 21 to Dec. 18, 2022.

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